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Psychology Terms - Actuarial prediction
A forecast of behavior derived solely from statistical data, devoid of subjective interpretation. This process involves the mechanical processing of information, resulting in probabilities that reflect empirically established relative frequencies. For instance, psychometric test scores are juxtaposed with normative data tables to predict the likelihood (p) that an individual will succeed in a training program, reoffend post-release from prison, develop a specific mental disorder, or commit suicide. Such predictions are grounded in the relative frequencies of these outcomes among individuals with comparable test scores. The initial comprehensive analysis and comparison with clinical prediction was conducted by US psychologist Paul Everett Meehl (1920–2003) in his 1954 book, Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. Meehl was the first to assert that it is nearly always more precise than clinical prediction. Also referred to as statistical prediction.
A forecast of behavior derived solely from statistical data, devoid of subjective interpretation. This process involves the mechanical processing of information, resulting in probabilities that reflect empirically established relative frequencies. For instance, psychometric test scores are juxtaposed with normative data tables to predict the likelihood (p) that an individual will succeed in a training program, reoffend post-release from prison, develop a specific mental disorder, or commit suicide. Such predictions are grounded in the relative frequencies of these outcomes among individuals with comparable test scores. The initial comprehensive analysis and comparison with clinical prediction was conducted by US psychologist Paul Everett Meehl (1920–2003) in his 1954 book, Clinical Versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. Meehl was the first to assert that it is nearly always more precise than clinical prediction. Also referred to as statistical prediction.
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